港金融抗震力强 无惧外围疾风暴雨

美联储局激进加息，引发国际资金流向变化，环球金融市场出现急风暴雨，香港股汇也明显受压。昨日香港金融管理局三年来首次入市承接港元沽盘，但这是联汇制度下的正常操作，投资者无需反应过敏。事实上，香港金融抗震力强，凭借稳健银行体系，加上外汇及财政储备庞大，有能力应对突如其来资金流动，美国收紧货币政策难以撼动香港金融与货币稳定。

实施近40年的联汇制度经得起考验，经历多次经济与利率周期，一直行之有效。联汇制度无疑是维持香港金融稳定的基石，有利继续吸引海内外资金。其实，香港作为国际金融中心，资金进出是十分正常，不用大惊小怪。香港受惠于中国经济发展，商机无限，具有近水楼台之利，独特优势难以替代，毕竟中国是全球经济火车头，暂时流出的资金迟早会回流。

无可否认，环球市场震荡不休，香港也难独善其身。昨日恒生指数跌至19300点附近，风险源主要来自美国通胀超预期，联储局加大收紧货币政策力度的预期升温，华尔街股市抛售潮加剧，美股泡沫爆破危机一触即发。这不单止可能拖垮美国自身经济，还随时掀起新一波金融风暴，继而祸延全球，导致国际资金呈现无序流动。

为了遏抑通胀，联储局过去两个月共加息0.75厘，令港美息差扩阔，预期港元兑美元未来继续触及7.85弱方保证兑换水平，香港金融管理局需要持续入市承接港元沽盘。不过，目前流出香港的资金有限，且银行体系结余仍超逾3000亿元，港息暂时没有上调压力。

值得留意的是，港元汇价走弱，反映资金流向确实出现一些变化，香港金融监管当局需保持高度警觉性，尤其是联储局同步加息与缩减资产负债表规模，收水力度前所未见，环球金融资产价格面临颇大下行压力。

美国上月通胀达到8.3%，继续处于40年来高位，拜登政府形容遏抑通胀是当局首要经济政策，相信联储局会继续激进加息。近期美股抛售潮愈演愈烈，反映投资者对联储局投下不信任票，政策失误、经济硬着陆风险愈来愈大，加速资金从股市、楼市、虚拟货币等风险资产大举出逃。

美国收水负面影响正逐步浮现，持续多年量化宽松货币措施催生的资产泡沫，恐出现连环爆破危机。例如近日虚拟货币比特币大幅下泻，价格对比历史高位出现腰斩。

最令人不安的是，持续13年大涨的美股，已形成一个超级泡沫，一旦爆破，杀伤力非同小可。继纳斯达克指数之后，标普指数也将进入技术性熊市，市场投资信心逐步溃散，触发恐慌性抛售，更大调整还在后头，随时掀起祸及全球的金融风暴。

此外，美国房产市场也响起警号，30年定息按揭利率上升至5.5厘水平，较一年前上升2厘以上，升幅为数十年来最大，必然会打击购房意欲，美国房产市场恐面临2007年次按危机以来最大挑战。

种种迹象显示，美国经济危机重重，美元资产沽压沉重，强美元难以持久，因而国际资金东流至中国大趋势不会改变。近期包括美资、英资基金纷纷部署落户香港，设立亚洲办事处，证明外资投下信心票，看好香港和内地的经济前景。 2022-05-13

With strong shock resistance, Hong Kong’s financial sector fears no violent storms from the outside

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) aggressive rate hikes bring about changes in international capital flows to raise a violent storm in global financial markets. Hong Kong shares and currency are also under noticeable downward pressure. Yesterday, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) had to step in to defend the currency for the first time in three years. This, however, is a normal operation under the Linked Exchange Rate System (LERS), so there is no need for investors to overreact. In reality, Hong Kong’s financial sector is strong in shock resistance. Relying on a prudent banking system plus huge foreign exchange and fiscal reserves, Hong Kong is capable of coping with any sudden capital flow. The U.S. tightening its monetary policy can hardly pose a threat to Hong Kong’s financial and monetary stability.

Having been in place for nearly four decades, the LERS stands the test of time. It has always worked well through multiple economic and interest-rate cycles. The LERS no doubt is a cornerstone sustaining Hong Kong’s financial stability, and favourable for luring funds from home and abroad. As a matter of fact, Hong Kong as an international financial hub, capital inflow and outflow are very normal. There is nothing to make a fuss about. Hong Kong benefits from China’s economic development which offers unlimited business opportunities. Hong Kong benefits from its proximity to Mainland China, a unique advantage that can hardly be replaced. China after all is the engine of the global economy, hence funds flowing out for the time being are bound to flow in again, sooner or later.

Needless to say, Hong Kong is hardly immune to global market turbulences. The Hang Seng Index yesterday dropped to around 19000. The main source of risk is the United States’ beyond-expectation inflation, which raises market expectation that the Fed would resort to more aggressive monetary tightening. This prompts more sell-offs on Wall Street, and the U.S. stock market bubble now is on the verge of bursting. This would likely not only drag down America’s own economy but also arouse a new financial storm. This in turn would bring disaster on the whole world, resulting in disorder flows of international capital.

To curb inflation, the Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage in total in the past two months. As a result, Hong Kong dollar’s interest-rate gap with the greenback widens, and its market exchange rate is expected to weaken again to the weak-side Convertibility Undertaking (CU) of HK$7.85 to one US dollar. The HKMA may need to stand ready to buy Hong Kong dollars from banks. Nevertheless, as the amount of capital outflow right now is quite limited and Hong Kong banks’ aggregate balance still exceeds $300 billion, Hong Kong’s interest rate still face little upward pressure for the time being.

It is noteworthy that Hong Kong dollar’s weakening　　exchange rate indeed shows some change in capital flow. Hong Kong’s financial supervisory authorities must keep high vigilance. In particular, the Fed moves to simultaneously increase interest rates and shrink its balance sheet. Given such unprecedented aggressiveness of monetary tightening, global financial asset prices are under quite heavy downward pressure.

Inflation in the U.S. reached 8.3 per cent last month, remaining high in 40 years. The Biden administration describes crackdown on inflation as its primary economic policy. It is thus believed the Fed will continue to hike rates aggressively. U.S. share sell-offs intensify recently. This suggests investors are casting votes of no confidence in the Fed and speeding up pulling out from stock, property and virtual currency markets, seeing that the risk of an economic hard-landing is growing due to policy mistakes　　

The negative effects of U.S. monetary tightening are gradually showing up. It is afraid that asset bubbles inflated by quantitative easing (QE) for so many a year may burst one after another. For example, the price of Bitcoin, a virtual current, has dived recently to half from its historic high.

The most unnerving is that the U.S. stock market, which has been soaring in the past consecutive 13 years, already becomes a super bubble. The lethality of its burst is not something to be trifled with. Following the Nasdaq Index, the S&P 500 Index (Standard & Poor’s 500 Index) will also likely enter a technical bear market. Market investors’ confidence gradually collapses, triggering panic sell-offs. Bigger adjustment is yet to come, which may raise a world-rattling financial storm at any moment.

In addition, U.S. property market also sets off alarm bells. The rate of 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has gone up to 5.5 per cent, two percentage points higher than a year ago – the largest jump in several decades. This inevitably will curb the desire of potential housing buyers. The U.S. property market may face the greatest challenge since the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis.

All signs show that the U.S. economy is being bogged down in crisis and U.S. dollar assets face heavy sell-off pressure. So much so that a strong U.S. dollar can hardly be sustained for long. Therefore, the general trend of capital flowing eastward into China won’t change. Recently funds including those from the U.S. and U.K. are planning to open their Asia offices in Hong Kong. This shows foreign funds cast their votes of confidence, optimistic about the economic outlooks of Hong Kong and Mainland China.

13 May 2022